(Note) I have very weak grip strength when it comes to stock investing. Please keep in mind that I’m a risk-averse chicken, and I hope you can read this with that assumption in mind.
1. FRED's T10Y3M
According to data from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the onset of a recession (and a stock market crash) from 2025 to 2026 was already clearly evident by December 23, 2022, when the new NISA was decided.
2. GLR (Gold Lease Rate)
At the beginning of 2025, it was under 0.1%, but by February, it has surpassed 4%. Such a rapid increase in the GLR is also a common phenomenon right before a recession.
3. The Risks of NISA, Nippon Individual Saving Accoung
With NISA, both profits and losses are treated as if they do not exist for tax purposes. Despite the name of "saving," they don't include bank savings, but just risky security investments.
When it comes to this very NISA,
・Profits are not taxed.
・Losses cannot be offset against other gains and cannot be carried forward to the next year.
Neither the Financial Services Agency nor securities companies properly explain the loss scenario. They only emphasize the benefits of profits. If an investor ends up with unexpected losses and files a lawsuit, the court is likely to side with the Financial Services Agency and the securities companies, dismissing the claim. It would not be an exaggeration to say that this is a nationwide and industry-wide fraud scheme.
Even during the Great Depression of 1929 and the collapse of Japan’s bubble in 1990, it took more than 30 years for prices to return to their original levels. In similar scenarios in future, for someone in their 50s or older who buys at the market peak, they will likely remain in loss for the rest of their lives. Even worse, if they use NISA, there won't be any coverage for their losses.
Many of the 25 million people who opened NISA accounts have bought and held S&P, Nasdaq, and global (mostly U.S.) stocks. They will likely become pawns for the good relationship between Japan and the U.S. God bless them.
