I wrote a series on crisis management about five years ago. But since the whole world was in a state of “peace-induced complacency,” it drew almost no attention, and I eventually deleted it because it felt pointless.
Now, today, the U.S. government is urging American citizens in Israel and elsewhere in the Middle East, in total 14 countries, to leave the region. For those in Israel, the only recommended option is to take a bus and cross into Egypt by land.
The Japanese government has already chartered buses from Israel to Egypt as of yesterday and evacuated Japanese nationals.
In addition, Dubai in UAE, which is on the evacuation list, has also been targeted by bombs launched from Iran. Most of them have been intercepted by air-defense systems, but some have landed. Dubai attracts many of the world’s second-tier wealthy individuals seeking tax havens, but because it hosts U.S. military facilities and facilities cooperating with the U.S. military, it has become a target for Iran.
From the perspective of taxpayers in other countries, the plight of tax evaders has little meaning beyond schadenfreude. However, ensuring the safety of the 2.5 million Filipinos working in the Middle East and sending money home through honest labor is strongly desired.
Many airports in the Middle East are already non-functional, and even those still operating are considered facilities cooperating with the U.S. military, making them targets for Iran. Travel by sea is out of the question. That leaves only land routes, and the best option is to get on a bus while they are still running.
If someone foolishly hesitates until the buses end its operation, the only option left is to avoid major roads—where landmines are often planted—and escape to Egypt by car using side roads. Electric vehicles obviously cannot be charged along the way, so the only choice is a fuel-efficient gasoline car loaded with gasoline, food, water, and medical supplies. But anyone prepared enough to survive such a situation would likely have already left the Middle East by the time the U.S. government granted permission for non-essential embassy staff in Israel to leave last week.
Whatever the reason you are currently in the Middle East, if buses are still available, you must wake up from peace-induced complacency and normalcy bias, and get out. That is the only advice that can be given at this moment.
